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That’s the most recent forecast from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Based on observations of what’s happening in the Pacific Ocean, and modeling to predict what may be coming, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center has issued a La Niña watch, indicating that conditions are favorable for its development.

A number of factors have climatologists convinced that La Niña is brewing again.

Among them are changes to Pacific Ocean trade winds.

This was thanks to another phenomenon, known as the “pineapple express“.This shift in conditions in the Pacific had its origins even prior to August.“During the second half of July, the trade winds puffed a bit harder over the western half of the Pacific, likely helping this current Kelvin wave form,” writes Emily Becker in NOAA’s informative and compellingly clear ENSO Blog.In that same frame, orange and yellow tones hugging the west coast of South America reveal particularly warm water — evidence of a “coastal El Niño.” This phenomenon sometimes is a prelude to a full-fledged El Niño, in which a spear of unusually warm water extends westward from the coast of South America along the equator.But as the second frame in the animation shows, that’s not what happened this time.

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